The Golden State Warriors (6-6) play the defending NBA champion Los Angeles Lakers (11-3) at Staples Center on Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Warriors-Lakers NBA betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Golden State has lost two in a row coming into Monday’s game. It also went 0-2 against the spread in a 104-95 home loss to the Indiana Pacers Tuesday and a 114-104 loss at the Denver Nuggets Thursday.
Despite Warriors PG Stephen Curry playing well to start the season—28.4 points, 5.6 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game—and all the excitement about No. 2 overall pick C James Wiseman, Golden State’s offense hasn’t come around yet. The Warriors are 24th in offensive rating and 22nd in effective field-goal percentage.
The Lakers have won five straight games and covered the spread in each of their past four. Three of those were on the road and their back-to-back 18- and 17-point wins over the Houston Rockets were G James Harden’s final games in Houston.
Over those four games, Los Angeles has the second-best net rating and highest rebounding percentage, and its stars—LeBron James and Anthony Davis—aren’t even dominating to the level we are accustomed to seeing. LeBron is averaging 22.8 points per game with 7.3 rebounds and 7.5 assists while AD is putting up 20.3 points and 6.8 rebounds per in the past four Lakers games.
Los Angeles won all three meetings and went 2-1 ATS with Golden State last season but Curry nor SG Klay Thompson played in any of those games.
Warriors at Lakers: Betting odds, spread and lines
Money line: Warriors +310 (bet $100 to win $310) | Lakers -400 (bet $400 to win $100)Against the spread/ATS: Warriors +8.5 (-110) | Lakers -8.5 (-110)Over/Under: 226.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Warriors at Lakers: Key Injuries
SG Klay Thompson(Achilles) out
SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (ankle) probable SF LeBron James (ankle) questionable PF Anthony Davis (back) probable
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Warriors at Lakers: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Lakers 115, Warriors 104
Money line (ML)
PASS. The Lakers (-400) are the right side here but I am not putting that much money at risk against Curry and the Warriors in a regular-season game.
Against the spread (ATS)
I like betting LeBron in primetime games and, aside from name appeal, the Warriors are currently at least a tier, maybe two, below the Lakers.
Outside of Curry going off against Lakers PG Dennis Schroder, I don’t know how the Warriors get easy points. It’s a big number so I’m a little afraid of Golden State sneaking in the backdoor but I’ll sprinkle a small wager on LAKERS -8.5 (-110).
There could be value in BETTING UNDER 226.5 (-110) since both teams have epic offensive firepower. There are just too many Under trends that highlight how much bettors are overvaluing these teams:
Four of the previous five Warriors-Lakers games have gone Under the total. Los Angeles has a 2-10 O/U record in its last 12 games. Golden State has an 0-4 O/U record in its last four games as an underdog.
Also, MLK Day is one of the biggest days of the NBA season and Warriors-Lakers being the final game of the slate means the public will most likely hammer the favorite and the Over.
That logic lines up with the current market handle: More than 60% of the money wagered is on the Under but close to 60% of the total bets placed are on the Over, according to Pregame.com. The money column is generally considered the sharp side of the market.
UNDER 226.5 (-110) is my favorite play in Warriors-Lakers.
Steph Curry says the Lakers have ‘championship confidence’ in 2020-21 season(Warriors Wire)James Wiseman ‘can’t wait’ to play against LeBron James, Anthony Davis(Rookie Wire)LeBron James on age: ‘I can’t go to 46, and I don’t think my wife would like that’(LeBron Wire)
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